class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide # <code>predict(DSTS, n.ahead=50)</code> ## Two-day meeting 2021 ### Claus Thorn Ekstrøm<br>UCPH Biostatistics ### November 18th, 2021 --- class: animated, fadeIn layout: true --- background-image: url(pics/title.png) background-size: 99.7% --- class: center, middle .Large[*"I am a statistician"*] .pull-right[-- Tue Tjur, DSTS 25 years meeting] --- class: center, middle .Large[*"We need to talk"*] .pull-right[-- Your significant other] --- class: inverse, middle, center # Let's talk about the difficult questions ??? Statisticians are really not good at this. What do we so ... we solve another problem that is not the right one. P-value It will hurt ... there might be tears ... and in the end ... there will be dinner --- class: center, middle, fadeIn .Large[Why are we in this relationship?] --- class: center, middle, fadeIn, Large .Large[Are we happy?] --- class: center, middle, fadeIn .Large[What's in it for me?] --- class: center, middle, fadeIn .Large[What is our role in society?] [ What do we even mean by society? ] --- class: center, middle, fadeIn .Large[Are we happy with the direction that we're going?] --- class: center, middle, fadeIn .Large[Are we making an effort?] --- class: center, middle, fadeIn .Large[Should we be seeing other people?] --- class: center, middle, fadeIn .Large[Let's talk about death!] --- class: inverse, middle, center # What is DSTS? --- class: middle .pull-left[ **Regular business** * Two-day meeting * Xmas lecture * General assembly + lecture * SJS ] .pull-right[ **Assets** * Mailing list * Bunch of money * YSD * The members ] .center[Is DSTS just a rich uncle?] ??? Hvordan hyret til dette? Hvem planlægger Opringning Particular type of member --- background-image: url(pics/activities.png) background-size: 92% <br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br> Mostly just LOCF? --- class: inverse, middle, center # What characterizes a statistician? --- class: center, middle .Large[*"Statistics is the method for translating data into an interpretation of how the world works."*] .pull-right[-- Susanne Ditlevsen, last year, P1] --- class: center, middle .Large[*"Anyone can produce an estimate. What **we** can do is to figure out the uncertainty of that estimate."*] .pull-right[-- Ernst Hansen, Some lecture] --- # A statistician is someone who can 1. differentiate a function and set it equal to zero. 2. determine the asymptotical behaviour of a function. -- **Propositon 1:** A statistician is a person that converges towards a grumpy old man as age `\(\rightarrow\)` infinity. -- **Corollary 1:** This result holds regardless of gender.<br> Also, the asymptotics kick in rather quickly. --- background-image: url(pics/nerds.jpeg) background-size: 99.7% ??? # This is us Sidde ovre i hjørnet ... gøre grin med de andre ... Data scientists, computer scientists, bioinformaticians, chemometricians, ... Dangerous we are isolating ourselves ... that is a major problem. Not saying that we are not right ... we should be inclusive The way to convince others is not to ridicule them but to embrace them and give them the opportunity to learn. Not police Data science at all the universities --- class: middle, center # How do we secure an influx of young people? YSD --- background-image: url(pics/price.png) background-size: 92% <br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br> What's the point of being a member? --- class: inverse, middle, center # What's in it for me? --- # What are the benefits of DSTS? --- class: inverse, middle, center # Are we making an effort? (Are we attractive?) ??? Why would people want to join? --- class: center <br><br><br> .Large[*"What do you think of DSTS?"*] -- .Large["*What is DSTS?*"] .pull-right[-- A couple of stats students] --- .Large[*"If I should ever name a swinger club I would put 'Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics' on the door. I would **NEVER** get any unexpected visitors. Probably not even the tax authorities."*] .pull-right[-- Team leader, Danish Medicines Council] <br><br> -- .Large[*"In fact ... now that I think about it I don't want to know what goes on at those two-day meetings."*] --- background-image: url(pics/homepage.png) background-size: 85% --- background-image: url(pics/nnf.png) background-size: 80% --- background-image: url(pics/my_tombstone.jpg) background-size: 80% # predict(DSTS, n.ahead=50) --- class: inverse, middle, center # What should we do? --- background-image: url(pics/premortem.jpg) background-size: 99.7% --- background-image: url(pics/meeting.jpg) background-size: 99.7% # Keep the meetings! - Seminars - Courses ??? Århus --- background-image: url(pics/harry.jpeg) background-size: 99.7% # What's in a name? --- background-image: url(pics/babies.jpeg) background-size: 99.7% # Start making babies --- # See other people - start outreach program * General public * Journalists * High school - teacher and students * DSBS, Anvendt statistik * Data science communities --- background-image: url(pics/money.jpeg) background-size: 99.7% # How? Use the money --- # In the end ... Apologies if we've spend too much time on this. It's because I still love you. -- And really ... can a statistician analyse things too much? Hope that DSTS is still going strong at 100